Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 75947.310107 80231.076985 84518.268370 89127.760497 93940.515513 98814.148285 104119.400307
2026-01-04 69360.685875 75916.396732 82663.348881 90116.637040 98109.837957 106415.164725 115687.619702
2026-01-11 64471.703446 72579.847013 81110.740281 90736.161306 101274.681640 112442.304371 125151.392253
2026-01-18 60383.948760 69617.415951 79514.634104 90880.672634 103539.972614 117173.455502 132932.697800
2026-01-25 57089.461469 67213.594168 78243.712192 91106.818970 105646.963498 121524.362539 140122.832934
2026-02-01 54093.685983 64915.672018 76881.834348 91031.266780 107238.898408 125156.854382 146394.100110
2026-02-08 51963.151213 63450.287281 76323.045431 91735.326510 109599.962989 129567.598912 153481.929151
2026-02-15 49645.514895 61631.166958 75234.436923 91714.216345 111030.147204 132842.508528 159220.616932
2026-02-22 48299.300964 60867.008075 75295.992210 92962.392369 113876.860037 137711.437115 166784.299193
2026-03-01 46850.040591 59899.382016 75047.599044 93783.236464 116174.864301 141914.712051 173567.428370
2026-03-08 45042.400370 58416.697571 74112.079594 93718.296527 117368.618490 144785.488034 178766.956885
2026-03-15 43568.150833 57275.445313 73528.136256 94021.394855 118957.584186 148093.630954 184471.583403
2026-03-22 42748.963888 56921.795983 73890.200199 95474.441113 121952.241321 153117.049381 192293.458790
2026-03-29 41767.407598 56324.880303 73921.836315 96500.008300 124418.779749 157516.088398 199398.654979
2026-04-05 40668.528629 55534.810199 73675.814950 97150.485895 126405.053190 161329.173899 205809.261121
2026-04-12 39401.333225 54482.336700 73059.611791 97302.237303 127747.724538 164344.818038 211251.861499
2026-04-19 38249.546564 53536.419130 72539.909962 97541.109509 129172.847374 167447.656937 216802.855344
2026-04-26 37018.313594 52444.595660 71796.188564 97461.173726 130171.206100 170008.676770 221684.948871
2026-05-03 36217.894906 51890.089354 71715.855958 98205.545461 132194.328075 173836.138460 228146.808034
2026-05-10 35128.679065 50916.226717 71061.249989 98183.224329 133223.322684 176414.372486 233057.360252
2026-05-17 34660.028362 50755.729411 71451.551639 99502.748320 135962.960378 181144.055459 240683.530829
2026-05-24 34028.878832 50353.052250 71505.548264 100370.415694 138116.784215 185141.726269 247410.961368
2026-05-31 33049.193053 49444.886283 70864.105578 100301.774160 139043.195760 187577.722971 252170.604369